…of football!
1) It’ll be nice to have something on besides baseball. As in, a sport.
2) Why does the media insists on completely misunderstanding the preseason? I saw two articles this week; one noted that the Colts have won almost no preseason games during the last few years while the Lions have won a lot, the other noted that the Broncos have a presesason record in the .700 to .800 ballpark under Shanahan. Umm… irrelevant. The only truly relevant section of the preseason is the portion where 1st-team O’s and D’s are playing (usually just the first couple of series each way). After that, everything is talent evaluation. Some people might get the Mike Bell bump during preseason, but even that is not the focus for the person trying to figure out their team’s chances. Look again at the Colts, Lions, and Broncos, and see how the 1st teams actually look.
3) Still, the preseason is better than baseball.
4) Speaking of the Broncos, I see projections for them ranging from 4 wins to 14 wins. Obviously, the extrema are mostly made of superfans and superhaters. A lot of the lowe range is interestingly made up of nervous fans who are bracing for the worst (lowered expectations are harder to disappoint). My take: I think they’ll bag 10 wins and a wild card with second in the division. If the Chargers don’t work out under their new coach (read: implode), then the Broncos have a shot at first. This is a little more optimistic than most, but I think it’s pretty valid at this point:
+ The offensive line is healthy again, and further recovered from talent loss during the last few years.
+ The defensive secondary is frightening. Bly’s tendency to gamble shouldn’t be too harmful since he’ll be lined up against #2 and #3 receivers.
+ The receivers are actually doing rather well in preseason. During the 1st game, and during the Cowboys scrimmages, blogs of fans of the other teams are indicating surprise at Denver’s success in passing. That’s probably a more fair evaluation than any Denver blog due to detachment.
+ Cutler is a fast learner. During his games last season, he actually showed statistically significant consistent improvement from game to game. With an entire offseason to prepare, he should be in better shape.
+ The schedule is easy. Seriously. 4-2 in the division is most likely, and 5-1 is the second most likely figure. They tangle with the NFC North, which should be 3-1 (2-2 second most likely). The Bears will likely slide back a bit, and the Packers will move up a bit (and probably take the division unless Favre’s age finally kills things). Other than that, it’s Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Jax, Tennessee, Houston, and Indianapolis. In that mix, I’d bet on 3-3 with 4-2 second most likely. That sums up to about 10-6, give or take 2.
+ I think that Travis Henry will actually work out ok for this year, though I had serious doubts earlier. He’s getting older for a RB, but he’s still healthy. He fits a 1-cut scheme very well, which is why Denver got him.
5) I’m leery of the special teams of Denver. Last year, they weren’t so good.
6) On to college football. Tennessee is a huge question mark in the SEC East. Nobody knows how good the receivers will be. The running game should be good, even without Coker (suspended indefinitely, rumored to be for codeine abuse). The defense is stout, and special teams are ok. (Quick word on special teams: if you don’t hear anything about them during the camps, they’re ok.) UT is usually placed 2nd or 3rd in the East, behind Florida and Georgia. Given that they play Florida away and Georgia at home, that sounds fair.
Tennessee’s schedule is a killer. @ Cal, home for Southern Miss, @ Florida, home for Arkansas State before a bye week. The home games are easy, but those road trips are killers. 4-0 at this point would start national title rumors. 3-1 would be good especially if Florida is one of the 3). 2-2 is bad news. In my opinion, the home date against Arkansas is the most worrisome. McFadden killed them last year, and a loss at home would be judged rather poorly. There’s more downside to a loss here than against Florida or Georgia.
7) Completely blind, uneducated guess on the Super Bowl teams (just for the heck of it): New England and Philadelphia. Honestly, Philly’s probably the only NFC team who could beat the AFC this year.
8 ) Ditto for College National Title Game (whatever it’s called this year): USC and Michigan. USC should cakewalk the PAC-10, and Michigan looks better than last year’s edition on paper. The Big-12 is too weak to send someone (though OU is most likely), and the SEC tends to beat themselves up too badly. I don’t buy the Big East quite yet, though they’re close. The ACC has problems, and won’t make it. That basically leaves a Big 10 team, and Michigan will probably make their occasional appearance to save Carr’s job. I think I’ll tune that one out if it happens.
9) Player to watch: Michael Oher, left tackle of Ole Miss. Seriously. The kid has a chance to be the best LT prospect in NFL history, and this is his third year. Michael Lewis’s book “The Blind Side” gives a great account of a kid who should never have had a chance. I managed to see him on TV last year; he never looked like he was trying, and nobody ever came close to the QB from his side. You can’t ask for more.
10) 2008 pre-preview. Wyoming plays at Tennessee in ‘08. For homecoming. It’s pretty close to election time, too. If Thompson has the Republican ticket, watch out for very irrelevant analogies between the game and the White House. Other than that, it could be more interesting than it sounds. Ainge will be gone in ‘08, and Joe Glenn seems to be having a ball in Laramie. If UW can improve over the next couple of seasons, they might catch Tennessee on a down cycle and make a game of it. Knowing UW’s luck, that means that they’ll hold it close through the first half and get killed in the third quarter to lose the game.
11) The NFL is flirting with disaster. The sheer number of people who can’t get the NFL network may figure out that they can live quite well without NFL games every week. If that begins to set in, the NFL might lose a lot of TV revenue. It’d be better for them to sacrifice some short-term profit to keep their fans happy and rabid in the long run.
12) To the one who finds this relevant: find a way to get down here November 10th for the Tennessee-Arkansas game, and I’ll find a ticket for you. With luck, my thesis will be defended and turned in, and I’ll have a lot of time on my hands.
